Jonathan Kuminga Scouting Report

Jonathan Kuminga had a much improved year in his third season in the league, but as he waits for an extension, is he a building block for a Warriors team transitioning out of their Steph era?

Overview

In his third year, Kuminga went through a mini breakout year that he will look to build on this season. After skipping college to play for G League Ignite in 2020-21, Kuminga was selected by the Warriors 7th overall in the 2021 draft. It was no question that he was a gifted athlete and has the ideal size of an NBA wing, but the question was what could he do with it? His true shooting percentage (takes free throws into account) has hovered right at 59% in his first three years in the league (per Dunks and Threes), which is in the top 150, but where he has seemingly improved is his decision making, as his turnover percentage has decreased every year and his assist percentage is up dramatically from his rookie year (8% to 12.3%) (per Cleaning the Glass). I rewatched three Warriors games from last season to conduct this scouting report, and here is what I saw from Jonathan Kuminga.

Offense

Initiating the Offense

When he brings the ball up, his preference is to drive from the left wing into the middle of the floor using his right hand. He is not very creative with the ball in his hand to breakdown and get by his defender, so what the Warriors do is use a guard (usually Steph) to screen for him at the right elbow. To initiate this, they will have Kuminga bring the ball up to the left wing, and then they will use Steph as a screener because of the gravity he has. They will also mix in ram screens from Draymond to free up Steph and cause even more panic on the pop with Steph’s defender trailing him, or if they switch, a dangerous mismatch. Both defenders become so worried about Steph popping for three, that they stay with him and let Kuminga develop a full head of steam to get to the rim. 

Steph does a great job of screening his own man as well as Lopez here, that opens up a lane to the basket for Kuminga. He heavily favors his right hand, and is not very creative off the dribble, so getting him open lanes and feeding him early in transition are where he is most comfortable on offense. 

Here is another example of Steph setting a screen at the elbow early in the game against the Bulls. Caruso is out of position because he is making sure Steph does not come open. This allows Kuminga to draw the foul.

They will then use this action late in games to initiate other actions. Instead of driving to the hoop, the defense has seen it and adjusted for the drive, so, Steph will slip the screen and pop for three. This allows the Warriors to play off their favorite thing, Stephs gravity, in creative ways with the defense in a scramble. It can also lead them right into their post split offense with Draymond having set the ram screen on the low block, Steph catching it in the slot, and Kuminga positioned at the top of the key, or Klay (now another guard) in the corner. You see here, they immediately go into a side pick and roll with Draymond and Steph. 

They play off of this action in creative ways and set the defense up early in the game, to free Steph up late. 

Drives

Kuminga sees a lot of drives off of this inverted pick and roll at the elbow, and it is very effective at getting him going downhill. He was second on the team in drives per game at 6.2, and second in drive points per game at 4.4. He also shot 53% on drives which is top five on the team (on higher volume than most Warriors). The problem is, he has a tendency to drive with his head down. Kuminga was third lowest on the team in passing off of drives, passing on 30% of his drives, while only assisting on 4.2% of his drives. That is an insanely low number for the amount that he drives, and puts him dead last among rotation players on the Warriors. To make matters (much) worse he turned the ball over on 7.5% of his drives. That puts him last on the Warriors, and one of only four players in the NBA last season to have at least a 7% turnover rate on drives, while assisting on less than 4.5% of drives (among players who drove at least 5 times per game) (via NBA Stats). 

A big reason why he is inefficient on his drives is because he is reluctant to use his left hand. Here is an example where he comes off a wide pin down and has a small step on his defender driving to the middle. The only problem is that he is coming from the right corner. He then makes a move starting left but goes right back to his right to attack the basket.

Here is another example where he starts on the right side of the court in transition, but he is far more comfortable attacking the middle, so he dribbles left before shooting an awkward right handed shot on the left side of the court.

He made the shot for an and one, but it shows how unwilling he is to use his left hand. Throughout the three games I went back and rewatched, he only shot a left handed shot once. It was an open layup on the left side with no defender hindering his path to the basket. 

In the Post

I mentioned earlier how much the Warriors like to post up Kuminga (1.9 times per game, most on the team) (via NBA Stats). They will not only throw it to him in the post and clear out the side allowing him to go to work, but they will also use him as a playmaking hub from time to time. They will hit him on the left logo, and then have Steph or another shooter come off wide staggered pin downs to open up a three. 

However, it is more common for them to want to get it to him in the post and go to work one on one. It is extremely challenging to double anyone on the Warriors with the amount of shooting they had and will have this year even without Klay. What I noticed was that he is far more comfortable catching the ball on the left logo, as opposed to the right. On the left logo, he can use his right hand to back his defender down, while also being able to spin back middle and use his right hand to finish. It also helps him to see the court better and whip a right handed pass if someone cuts open, as the Warriors are awesome at moving without the ball. When he catches it on the left logo, he is immediately looking to attack the basket. In this clip, he brings the ball up the right side of the court in transition, but dribbles all the way to left logo before posting up and attacking his defender.

On the flip side, when he gets the ball on the right logo, he is hesitant. He looks to pass and seems timid. 

Here he catches it a little lower (in the dunker spot) but he still looks to pass right away and seems uncomfortable. He even dribbles it back out to get into a better spot on the court for him to distribute. I included the part at the end because it further exemplifies how reluctant he is to go left. He starts left and then immediately makes a move back to his right hand. 

Overall, getting Kuminga the ball in the post (particularly the left side) should continue to be a point of emphasis going forward. He was top 40 in the NBA in post ups per game and the frequency at which he posted up. He also led the Warriors and was top 30 in the league in points per post touch at 1.1 points per game.

As a Screener

The Warriors do not utilize Kuminga as a screener much (he set 0.5 screens per game) (via NBA Stats), but when he does screen he will usually slip it. He is very adept at finding the open space on the floor. 

As you can see in these videos, he is quick at recognizing when the defense is putting two on the ball or hedging a bit. He finds the open space and makes himself available, while also having that head of steam where he is most effective. They will also use his slips to set up post up opportunities. 

Offensive Overview

Overall, Kuminga has greatly improved his offensive impact. According to Dunks and Threes, his estimated plus minus (plus-minus that takes into account skill of players on the court) went from an abysmal -1.4 offensive EPM, to being a positive on offense at 0.2 (jumping from 261st in the league to 131st). This is mainly due to the fact that he has settled in and found where his strong suits are. He has always been a strong finisher around the rim with his size and speed, and looks to score there the most, however, he has started to stray away from three pointers more in favor of mid range. Now, three pointers are way more efficient than shots from the mid range, but Kuminga has developed his mid range game at a better rate than his three point game, and worked it into his offensive game. He’s gone from shooting 26% of his shots from three, to 17% of them from deep, while only seeing his percentage go up 2% (from 31% to 33%) . From the mid range, he has improved from a 35% shooter to a 42% shooter, while taking 39% of his shots from mid range (up from 24% his rookie year) (per Cleaning the Glass). He realized threes were not as much a part of his game and has worked to improve his mid range shooting, and it is clearly paying off. 

The area Kuminga can improve, especially being in the Warriors system, is his catch and shooting. The Warriors have thrived on off ball screens and confusion to create open catch and shoot opportunities for years, and that is definitely not Kuminga’s strong suit. He was on the lower end of the Warriors in catch and shoot field goal percentage, and points per game on catch and shoot opportunities. This is most likely a big reason Kerr refused to play him big minutes for so long, because he is not generating catch and shoot opportunities. He is not very active off the ball, and usually stands in the corner if not involved in the set. This is an area he will need to improve on if he wants to take that next step.

However, he is a great cutter off the ball. This goes hand in hand with his ability to find open space as the roller. Kuminga receives a pass on 2 cuts per game which is second on the Warriors, and he generates 1.3 points per possession when he cuts (via NBA Stats). He is a smart cutter and is constantly helping his teammates. He recognizes when to relocate and where to be.

The final note I have on Kumina’s offense is that he needs to get more comfortable with his left hand. If he were to become more comfortable going to his left and finishing with his left, it would open up his game so much. He could post up all over the floor, and become a much more effective driver. 

He has found his place in the Warriors offense, but still has some areas to improve on if he wants to maximize his potential, and maximize the Warriors chances of winning another title in the Steph era. 

Defense

On-Ball

On the ball there is not much to say about Kuminga. He is an outstanding one on one defender. His size and speed allow him to guard any position on the court, and will guard players like Derozan and Giannis for Golden State. He moves his feet well and is a solid screen navigator. 

Kuminga is also a very strong defender. He does not get moved off of his spot easily and makes it challenging to drive into him. 

Here, he bodies Giannis who drops his shoulder into his chest to try and move him under the rim. Giannis is one of the best at moving people off their spot in the league and Kuminga takes it right to the chest. 

Off-Ball

Kuminga is a decent off-ball defender, but this is the part of his defense that could use some work. He has a tendency to become disengaged and ball watch. 

He loosens up and is watching the ball, while barely keeping his man in view. It didn’t result in a bucket from his man, but he is clearly detached.

Here, he is once again caught ball watching and allows his man to cut by him for an offensive rebound. Once his man passes the ball, he has a tendency to relax and become disengaged. This makes him vulnerable for cuts and open threes. There were multiple instances where he lost sight of his man and was late on the closeout, allowing an open shot. 

Kuminga also overhelps and doubles when he does not need to. 

Draymond has good position against Giannis and is one of the more capable defenders in the NBA. There is no reason for Kuminga to come over and double, but he does, which gives one of the best shooters in NBA history a wide open catch and shoot three, swinging momentum and giving him confidence. You can see Kerr get frustrated with him and call timeout. 

Again, he over extended the double when Santos was in solid guarding position against a much smaller Tre Jones. Jones did not really have anywhere to go, but Kumimga came too far down and allowed an open three.

He constantly sells out for blocks and steals. This is due to the fact that he is usually disengaged off the ball or overhelping, leaving him with far more ground to make up on his closeouts, forcing him to jump by his man. This puts his team in rotation and usually allows a good shot.

Defensive Overview

Kuminga is a strong one-on-one defender with quick feet and great strength. He does not get moved off his spot and can hang with almost anyone in the post or on the perimeter. However, he is constantly disengaged off the ball, allowing a lot of open threes and causing his team to play in rotation way more than necessary. 

He is a plus defender, with a 0.8 defensive EPM (according to Dunks and Threes), but just by staying engaged off the ball he could greatly improve that. With his and Draymond’s switchability, the Warriors should be a nightmare to go against, but finished dead center (15th) in defensive rating, allowing 115.6 points per 100 possessions. 

Conclusion

Overall, Jonathan Kuminga has greatly improved each of his three years in the league. However, it still remains to be seen if he is a building block for the Warriors as they figure out how to navigate the transition out of the Steph era. Kuminga has been up for an extension this summer, and appears the Warriors may wait to see how this next year plays out before committing to Kuminga long term.

It is impossible to deny his potential, but he still has holes in his game he will need to patch to become the player the Warriors drafted him to be at 7th overall. However, it is promising to see him identify his game and build around that to become a much better player on offense, where he was a low efficiency liability in years past. I have hope Kuminga will continue to improve and be a big part of Golden State for the forseeable future.